Can everybody meet their contractual obligations with moves like this?
January 27, 2026
******************
–Yields across the board down 1 to 2.5 bps. Tens end 4.211, down 2.4. Implied vol in rate futures continues to languish. TYH6 111.75^ settle 0’57 (3.8) with 25 days left. New buyer of 50k SFRZ6 9750/9850cs for 3.5. Settled there ref 9675.0. So Dec’26 is at a yield of 3.25% with FF currently 3.5-3.75%.
–Incredible action in precious metals. SIH6 range 117.70 to 101.70, settled 115.50 but then immediately slid to the lows. Sixteen dollars on a contract that had just broken a price of 100. If gold had a 16% range it would be about $800. As it is, gold’s range was only $124, with Feb gold high 5107.90 and low 4983.60.
–Just for fun: SIZ6 150c settle 15.34. SIZ6 200c settle 8.73. Almost no open interest, but both strikes traded yesterday. In 1942 to 1945 the US mint produced War Nickels with 35% silver, 56% copper, to conserve nickel.
–Consumer Confidence today, which was 89.1 last, right around the covid low, but well above the 2009 housing bust. Five-year auction. FOMC tomorrow. Hopefully the committee will announce plans to print some silver and electricity.
I got one more silver dollar. (Yes I’ve used this one before, but it’s always a good way to start the morning)
