Archive for the ‘Eurodollar Options’ Category
The everything rally continues
August 31, 2021 –Another day, another new high in equity futures. For the past three or four months, ES has had a nice break around the 19th to 20th of the calendar month, and then predictably rallies into the next month until the 14th to 16th before experiencing another pullback. Like clockwork. In September, the […]
Powell nudges hike expectations further out
August 30, 2021 –Not much reaction to Hurricane Ida, which knocked out power to New Orleans. An explosion near the Kabul airport of a car with an improvised rocket launcher (like the kind you might see on Chicago’s Dan Ryan expressway) likewise has been ignored, except of course, stocks are making new highs. And Oct […]
Successful Execution of a Plan
August 29, 2021- Weekly Comment How successful was Powell? On the week the ten year rose 5.2 bps to 1.31%. That’s less than the increase in the German bund of 7.2 bps. 2/10 rose to 108.5, up a bit over 7 from the previous Friday, but still below the high for August of 113.5. 5/30 […]
Attempting withdrawal
August 27, 2021 –Top story from yesterday was the bombing at the Kabul airport, which effectively closed the circle of US policy: Exit the forever war, take casualties in a disastrous evacuation, tell the Generals you will give them whatever they need to hunt down perpetrators, send more troops to fight… however long it takes. […]
Taper groundwork is set
August 26, 2021 –As expected, Bank of Korea raised its base rate from 0.5% to 0.75%. Concerns about hot property prices and growing debt outweighed covid concerns. The same financial stability issues face the Fed. Having done considerable groundwork to lay the foundation for the start of taper, I expect Powell to move forward, delivering […]
Housing and financial stability
August 24, 2021 –Fairly quiet day in rates, treasury yields unchanged to down 1.3 bps with tens ending a smidgen lower at 1.253%. As the Jackson Hole event was forced to go virtual due to the delta variant, many think the Fed will defer to the virus and delay any moves toward taper. Asset markets […]
Common Prosperity and Jackson Hole
August 23, 2021 –Bitcoin back above 50k. WTI is showing a strong bounce today from oversold levels last week. CLV1 is now above $64/bbl, having put in an overnight low of 61.74. Friday’s range has been engulfed this morning. Other commodities also seeing bounces, with gold +6 at 1790. Stock futures stronger, with ESU +12 […]
Jackson Hole Round Trip in 5/30
August 22, 2021 – Weekly Comment The Taliban is not the south — the North Vietnamese army. They’re not — they’re not remotely comparable in terms of capability. There’s going to be no circumstance where you see people being lifted off the roof of a embassy in the — of the United States from Afghanistan. –President […]
Heavy selling in EDZ1
August 20, 2021 –Yesterday featured a couple of large trades, a sale of some 300k EDZ1 down to 9979 (settled 80) and a sale of 50k TY3Q 134.25/134.50 call spread from 8 to 5 (5s). This latter call spread expires today, and was an adjustment of long 134/134.5 call spreads, leaving the position as long […]
Risk reassessment
August 19, 2021 –Stock market pullback yesterday (SPX -1.1% and Nasdaq -0.9%). Headlines from Bloomberg, Reuters and WSJ attribute selling to taper discussion in FOMC minutes and reduced growth prospects due to covid. My personal assessment is that the administration’s Afghan disaster is the dominant factor, as taper plans have been in the news for […]
