Archive for the ‘Eurodollar Options’ Category
FOMC minutes
August 18, 2021 –Stocks eased yesterday as Afghanistan and delta weighed. FOMC minutes today. Further clues about the taper timeline could emerge, with Rosengren yesterday echoing Kaplan by noting the Fed doesn’t affect supply as easily as boosting demand. The marginal withdrawal of liquidity associated with taper will likely impact stocks more than fixed income. […]
Real yields decline
August 17, 2021 –Retail Sales today expected -0.3% but ZH reports that BAML forecasts a much weaker number based on credit card usage. Powell conducts an educator town hall at 1:30 EST. Yields continue to slip as Covid-delta weighs on confidence and the Afghan disaster throws US foreign policy into disarray. “We planned for every […]
Gradually, then suddenly
August 16, 2021 –The takeover of Kabul and destabilization of the region is likely to become a dominant policy topic; one that can’t be fixed with more stimulus. From the AP: “President Joe Biden and other top US officials were stunned on Sunday by the pace of the Taliban’s nearly complete takeover of Afghanistan, as […]
Net Worth
August 15, 2021 – Weekly Comment I don’t care for Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez. On August 12, 2021 she tweeted:“It is absolutely wild that members of Congress are still allowed to buy and sell individual stock. It shouldn’t be legal.” There oughta be a law. Bravo AOC. Even she realizes how easy it is for individual members […]
Inflation internalized
August 12, 2021 –CPI which came out as expected 5.4% with Core 4.3%, was easily absorbed. Price pressures appear to be broadening, but fixed income showed little net change. Solid ten year auction results with a yield of 1.34%, about 3 bps thru. Indirects, related to buying by foreign central banks, went from just over […]
Heavy weight on interest rate contracts
August 11, 2021 –CPI and ten year auction today. CPI expected +0.5 on the month, year/year 5.3 vs 5.4 last and Core 4.3 from 4.5. Senate passed the $3.5 trillion spending bill; the government’s monthly budget statement also released today. –Yields edged higher with tens up 2.7 to 1.342%. Greens (3rd yr) were the weakest […]
Let’s taper
August 10, 2021 –Yesterday saw follow-thru from Friday’s strong employment report with a push to slightly higher yields, supported by bearish comments from both Bostic and from Kaplan (the latter in an Odd Lots podcast). Tens rose 2.7 bps to 1.315%. Three year notes are auctioned today with tens to follow on Wednesday and 30’s […]
Tight jobs
August 9, 2021 –Gold crashed last night, with GCZ falling to 1678, but it has now bounced $65 off the low and is trading 1743. The last time gold traded below 1700 was in March, when SPX was trading around 3800 (vs 4436 now). Crude oil is also under pressure, printing -2.87 at 65.41, fully […]
Inflation tax
August 8, 2021 – Weekly Comment Senator Joe Manchin sent a letter to Chairman Powell on Thursday, August 5. Here are the key lines:“…I am increasingly alarmed that the Fed continues to inject record amounts of stimulus into our economy by continuing an emergency level of quantitative easing…” And, “I am deeply concerned that the […]
New shorts in front of payrolls
August 6, 2021 –Payrolls today expected 870k with yoy Avg Hourly Earnings expected +3.9% from 3.6 last. Technical seasonal factors are a tailwind behind NFP forecasts. In the past few days, Clarida said he expects the next couple of jobs reports to show strength, and Waller said he was hoping for strong data. Is it […]
