Archive for the ‘Eurodollar Options’ Category
Mark Twain market
March 26, 2021 –Tens ended unch’d yesterday, though the curve steepened as a couple of late +TY vs -WN blocks went through (details below). 10/30 rose 2 bps to 72.1. Steepening also apparent in the back end of the dollar curve with the blue back +0.625 and gold pack -1.625 (blue/gold pack spread is directionally […]
Whip Inflation Now
March 22, 2021 –Turkey’s Erdogan sacked the head of the Central Bank Naci Agbal, because rates were too high. Here come capital controls. –Interesting video from 1978 featuring Jimmy Carter’s plan to stop inflation (I believe it was posted by Eric Peters of One River Asset Mgmt). It’s all about gov’t austerity: “The gov’t has been […]
Stubborn Authority
And though authority be a stubborn bear,yet he is oft led by the nose with gold[s] Comment – March 21, 2021 ************************************************ Now is the winter of our discontent made glorious summer by this sun of York. And so, it’ll turn out to be a one-time sort of bulge in prices. But it won’t change […]
Countertrend?
March 19, 2021 –Yields jumped yesterday with tens up 9.6 bps to 1.728% at futures settle. Curve made new highs with 2/10 up 6.6 to 157. Red to gold euro$ pack spread (2nd to 5th year) also rose just over 6 bps to a new high of 172 bps. It has been a dramatic yield […]
Trying to square inconsistencies
March 18, 2021 *POWELL: RATES WERE AT ZERO FOR 7 YRS WITHOUT FINANCIAL EXCESSES….not with wartime gov’t spending!!! –Powell will be gone in February. I didn’t watch the press conference, so I am just relying on projection materials and dots, and it seems as if squaring the actual projections with the idea of keeping funding […]
Equity in Household Real Estate Growing
March 16, 2021 –Rate futures retraced a part of Friday’s sell off, with tens down 2.5 bps to 1.607%. Large trade in dollars was a buy of about 45k 0EU 9962.5p for 7.5 covered 9967.5 with 40 delta. Settled 7 vs 9968.0; the straddle settled 19.5. I looked back to September of last year (prior […]
The Ides
March 15, 2021 –Strong China economic data due to low base year-ago data. Industrial output +35% and Retail Sales +33.8%. In the US Goldman has raised its GDP forecast to 8% in 2021, and calls for an unemployment rate of just 4% by the end of the year. It’s little wonder that analysts are expecting […]
Holy Frijoles
March 13, 2021 – Weekly comment I saw three headlines this week that I am trying to wrap my head around. First, Household Net Worth was reported to have ended 2020 at a record $130.155 trillion, up by a whopping $6.9T in Q4. Annual GDP is only $21.5T. This net worth figure comes from the […]
Honing my reasoning skills
March 12, 2021 –Tens settled essentially unchanged and bonds slightly lower as the Treasury completed the 30y leg of the auctions. Post-auction, there was a buyer of some 70k EDZ22 at 9958.5 and a block buy of 4k USM 158-06. While there was a temporary boost from these buys, it didn’t last. As of this […]
Loosening conditions
March 11, 2021 –Biden’s $1.9t stimulus package passes…and DJIA makes new all-time high. Treasuries firm going into and coming out of the ten-year auction, with the yield down 2.5 bps at 2.52%. Implied vol crushed as CPI Core yoy prints at only 1.3%, probably the last low inflation data we’re likely to see over the […]
