Archive for the ‘Eurodollar Options’ Category
Bullet-proof? Maybe in Australia
March 3, 2021 –Stocks surged, the curve flattened. Tens fell nearly 5 bps to154.5 before today’s auction (w/i was 155.5/155 at futures settle). 2/10 dropped 5.3 to 138.0. A tweet from Stephen Spratt (BBG) this morning: “RBA has gone bullet-proof on yield curve control program. By changing the repo borrowing cost for YCC bonds to […]
Nasdaq moving because of…futures?
March 9, 2021 –Nasdaq yesterday accomplished a 10% decline from February’s highs. My first e-mail of the morning was from BBG, starting with “Tech shares get pummeled”. Of course as of this morning, futures are surging back with NQH up 267, and some of the news sites are braying about a Nasdaq comeback based on….futures. […]
Safe Havens
March 8, 2021 –“Hey don’t worry boss, I bought bonds AND gold to cushion any sort of unlikely sell off in stocks.” As of this writing, USM is 156-16, -23, a new low. GCJ is 1688.40, -10.1, a new low. NQH is 12431, down 233, but just above last week’s lows. Not too long ago, […]
Fed: transitory. Market: Not transitory
March 7, 2021 – Weekly Comment For a while, I was using 2018 as a guidepost for levels regarding economic activity and prices. This was the euphoric period following Trump’s tax bill, when the Fed was in the process of simultaneously tapering and raising the FF target, i.e. ‘normalizing’. Last week, data from ISM Mfg […]
Powell deflated
March 5, 2021 –The market wasn’t overly impressed with Powell’s delivery yesterday. Curve steepened to new highs, stocks took a tumble. EDZ’25, the 20th quarterly contract or last gold, settled 9799.5 (down 10.5), the first settle above 2% since July 2019 when the FF target was 2.25 to 2.50. The red/gold euro$ pack spread has […]
Poor planning
March 3, 2021 –After the surge in implied vol late last week, followed by the implosion the first two days in March, I can only refer to the Bricklayer’s accident report, which I reproduce here in full: Dear Sir: I am writing in response to your request for additional information in Block #3 of the […]
As the Fed whistles past the inflation graveyard…
March 1, 2021 –Quick news skim this morning includes the following snippets/headlines: Reuters: Eurozone factory activity raced along in February thanks to soaring demand, a survey showed on Monday, although the burst of business led to a shortage of raw materials and a spike in input costs. Bloomberg: Food prices are soaring faster than inflation […]
Mr. Market Questions the Fed
Feb 28. 2021- Weekly comment I didn’t watch much of Powell’s testimony this past week. But I did happen to catch CA Representative Brad Sherman’s monologue. This guy has been in Congress for thirty years. He starts by praising the ‘Fed Listens’ program and tells Powell, “I assure you your best ‘Fed listens’ event is […]
Potato heads
February 26, 2021 –Monster day with yields soaring. Belly led the rout, with fives up 17 bps to 79.2 as the 7-year auction was poorly rec’d. Tens up 12.6 bps to 150.8 and bonds rose just 7 to 230.5. Bloomberg noted that the ten-year yield just eclipsed the S&P dividend yield. All euro$ one-year calendars […]
Hogs
Feb 25, 2021 –I got a call yesterday from a friend (DK) telling me that the Aug/Oct Live Hog spread was blowing out to new historic highs. I have traded most futures contracts at one time or another, but have never been involved in the meats. It might be because the meat desk at Refco […]
