Archive for the ‘Eurodollar Options’ Category
Fed STAFF summary does not justify further easing
December 31, 2025******************** HAPPY NEW YEAR to all!! –First, as of this note March Silver is 71.58, down 6.34. Unsurprisingly, the CME again raised margins on prec metals, with Silver going from $27.5k to $35,750. Gold initial margin went from $24.2k to $26.4khttps://www.cmegroup.com/content/dam/cmegroup/notices/clearing/2025/chadv25-399.pdf –Once again, rate futures/options were quiet yesterday. 2y yield fell 1 bp […]
Red Flags
December 30, 2025********************* –Yields edged slightly lower Monday with tens down 2.2 bps to 4.112%. SOFR curve biased steeper. SFRH6 unch’d at 9649, but H7 was +3 at 9691, and then things tailed off, with H8 +1.5 at 9671.5 and H9 +1.0 at 9651.5. –Precious metals were slammed and bitcoin also ended near the low […]
It’s a reddit market
December 29, 2025********************** –CME higher margin for silver is in effect, $27,500 initial. The range so far, just for today, in SIH6 is 82.67 to 73.71, or 8.96 or $44800. –Friday featured a bounce in the curve, with 2s down 2 bps to 3.491%, 10s unch’d at 4.134 and 30s +2.4 to 4.818%. I marked […]
Minsky New Year!
December 28, 2025********************* “We defined [the debt] as a python, wrapped around our necks, we couldn’t breathe properly, around our chest, our ribs, and the legs. That is why we set out to do what we did.” [DOGE?] As it stands, 94 per cent of that has now been restructured and Fitch predicts government debt […]
In: Eurodollar Options
Metals
December 26, 2025********************* –The median home price in the US is $430k. This morning, with SIH6 at $74, the notional value of one contract is $370k (5000oz). A gold contract’s notional value is $453.5k. On the day before Thanksgiving, Nov 26, SIH6 was 53.60, a sizzling gain of 38% since then. April platinum is up […]
Merry Christmas to Yukon Cornelius!
December 24, 2025********************* –Story continues to be silver (and other precious metals). Low settle in SIH6 in December was 57.49. This morning it prints 72, up 25% in less than one month. –I don’t know if precious metals enter the inflation calculation, but Q3 price index printed 3.8% with GDP a sizzling 4.3%. So nominal […]
Expectations Muted
December 23, 2025********************* –Yields edged a bit higher, led by shorter maturities given the 2y auction yesterday and 5s today. Two-yr ended just over 3.507% up 2.4, right at the lower end of the FF target range (3.5-3.75). The 5y is closer to the upper end of target, with wi ending at 3.723%. On the […]
I Got One More Silver Dollar
December 21, 2025*********************And I got one more silver dollarBut I’m not gonna let ‘em catch me, noNot gonna let ‘em catch the midnight rider–Allman Brothers Band Silver closed at an all-time high 67.15. From Liberation Day low in April of 28.35, the gain is 138%! Gold/silver ratio ended at 64.6, lowest since Covid in 2020 […]
In: Eurodollar Options
Water, water everywhere, nor any drop to drink
December 19, 2025********************* –Yields eased as CPI data was lower than expected, yoy 2.7 with yoy Core 2.6% (exp 3.0%). Philly Fed Mfg -10.2 vs +3 expected. Ten year yield fell 3.3 to 4.116%. SOFR contracts had a muted rally. SFRH6 +2 at 9650.5, H7 +3 to 9693 (tied with Z5 as peak contract), H8 […]
Ringing the bell
December 18, 2025********************* –Usually I feel like there are a lot of market forces that are nuanced. There’s a huge premium for thoughtful analysis that can weave diverse themes together. This isn’t that. Yesterday CNBC put it this way ‘Oracle stock slid after a report that Blue Owl Capital won’t back a $10 billion data center for OpenAI.’ […]
