Archive for the ‘Eurodollar Options’ Category
Going Back
January 2, 2026*****************–Wednesday featured a new high in 2/10 treasury spread at 68 bps (3.463/4.143). The low for the year was posted in February at just over 18 bps. Wed’s high hadn’t been seen since early 2022, just prior to the onset of the (flattening) hiking cycle. Since early April the spread traded a relatively […]
Fed STAFF summary does not justify further easing
December 31, 2025******************** HAPPY NEW YEAR to all!! –First, as of this note March Silver is 71.58, down 6.34. Unsurprisingly, the CME again raised margins on prec metals, with Silver going from $27.5k to $35,750. Gold initial margin went from $24.2k to $26.4khttps://www.cmegroup.com/content/dam/cmegroup/notices/clearing/2025/chadv25-399.pdf –Once again, rate futures/options were quiet yesterday. 2y yield fell 1 bp […]
Red Flags
December 30, 2025********************* –Yields edged slightly lower Monday with tens down 2.2 bps to 4.112%. SOFR curve biased steeper. SFRH6 unch’d at 9649, but H7 was +3 at 9691, and then things tailed off, with H8 +1.5 at 9671.5 and H9 +1.0 at 9651.5. –Precious metals were slammed and bitcoin also ended near the low […]
It’s a reddit market
December 29, 2025********************** –CME higher margin for silver is in effect, $27,500 initial. The range so far, just for today, in SIH6 is 82.67 to 73.71, or 8.96 or $44800. –Friday featured a bounce in the curve, with 2s down 2 bps to 3.491%, 10s unch’d at 4.134 and 30s +2.4 to 4.818%. I marked […]
Minsky New Year!
December 28, 2025********************* “We defined [the debt] as a python, wrapped around our necks, we couldn’t breathe properly, around our chest, our ribs, and the legs. That is why we set out to do what we did.” [DOGE?] As it stands, 94 per cent of that has now been restructured and Fitch predicts government debt […]
In: Eurodollar Options
Metals
December 26, 2025********************* –The median home price in the US is $430k. This morning, with SIH6 at $74, the notional value of one contract is $370k (5000oz). A gold contract’s notional value is $453.5k. On the day before Thanksgiving, Nov 26, SIH6 was 53.60, a sizzling gain of 38% since then. April platinum is up […]
Merry Christmas to Yukon Cornelius!
December 24, 2025********************* –Story continues to be silver (and other precious metals). Low settle in SIH6 in December was 57.49. This morning it prints 72, up 25% in less than one month. –I don’t know if precious metals enter the inflation calculation, but Q3 price index printed 3.8% with GDP a sizzling 4.3%. So nominal […]
Expectations Muted
December 23, 2025********************* –Yields edged a bit higher, led by shorter maturities given the 2y auction yesterday and 5s today. Two-yr ended just over 3.507% up 2.4, right at the lower end of the FF target range (3.5-3.75). The 5y is closer to the upper end of target, with wi ending at 3.723%. On the […]
I Got One More Silver Dollar
December 21, 2025*********************And I got one more silver dollarBut I’m not gonna let ‘em catch me, noNot gonna let ‘em catch the midnight rider–Allman Brothers Band Silver closed at an all-time high 67.15. From Liberation Day low in April of 28.35, the gain is 138%! Gold/silver ratio ended at 64.6, lowest since Covid in 2020 […]
In: Eurodollar Options
Water, water everywhere, nor any drop to drink
December 19, 2025********************* –Yields eased as CPI data was lower than expected, yoy 2.7 with yoy Core 2.6% (exp 3.0%). Philly Fed Mfg -10.2 vs +3 expected. Ten year yield fell 3.3 to 4.116%. SOFR contracts had a muted rally. SFRH6 +2 at 9650.5, H7 +3 to 9693 (tied with Z5 as peak contract), H8 […]
