Archive for the ‘Eurodollar Options’ Category
January 8. NFP today.
* BoC’s Poloz: we’re expecting the world economy to continue to gather strength http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSS0N14P00120160107 Yeah…like a hurricane. At least Canada’s central banker has his finger on the pulse of the global economy. –Here’s another headline, from BBG: CHINA LOCAL GOVTS MAY SELL 1T Yuan NEW DEBT THIS YEAR: INFO DAILY. To who? –Previously I thought […]
January 7, 2016. Global turmoil
–Don’t worry. Low inflation is transitory. In August the initial China devaluation took ESH to a spike low of 1840. We are still 100 points above that level, even with ESH down 49 as of this writing. China shares were halted again today after an opening plunge. Fed minutes yesterday revealed that some members had […]
Jan 6, 2016. Butterflies and rainbows
The butterfly effect – the flutter of a wing in one part of the planet altering the course of seemingly unrelated events in another part – is on center stage. That’s kind of a cool quote on ZH from an article citing Nomi Prins’ pontifications. Except for one little detail, it seems to understate the […]
Jan 5, 2016. Q4 GDP estimates revised lower in spite of booming gun sales
–Heck of a way to start the year. Global stocks trailed China lower with most US indices down 1.5 to 2%. DJ Transports closed at their lowest level since early 2014 and are now around 20% off the high from the start of last year. Bad PMI in China was followed by weak Mfg ISM in […]
Jan 4, 2016. All about China…
–Well Happy New Year to the stock shorts as China’s shares plunged 7% on weak Caixin PMI of just 48.2. ESH down 30 (currently 2005.25) as of this writing, nearing the bottom of the range for the past 2.5 months. –There was a good summary of China’s debt on Business Insider, link here: http://www.businessinsider.com/asian-debt-and-gdp-stats-2015-10?r=UK&IR=T $28 […]
Jan 2, 2016 Back to 2009
At this time of year, inboxes are crammed with projections and predictions. No real predictions here. I’ll only bring up three quick themes worth keeping in mind as January unfolds, and a few trade ideas. Many indicators are back at 2009 levels. Maybe that’s good because we’re back at a low base and will see […]
2016…the year of bitcoin?
This is a chart of Bitcoin (BBG symbol XBT). The chart immediately below follows a very similar pattern. It’s a chart of gold. The 1979/80 spike higher unraveled over the next 6 years or so, just as the spike high in XBT from Nov/Dec in 2013 has taken about 6 quarters to unwind. So, in […]
In: Eurodollar Options
Dec 30. EU Bank rules: Lose slowly by depositing at negative rates, or all at once in a bail in
–Happy New Year! –Little net change in rates yesterday. As has been a recent pattern, as the treasury ended the last leg of the weekly auctions, yesterday being the 7 year, treasuries rallied. Some of that support came from weakness in equities, though open interest is SPH was down, suggesting modest end of year liquidation. […]
Dec 29. Themes continue into year end
–Quiet day yesterday, but there are a few interesting notes. First, the Dallas Fed came out at -20.1 versus expected -7.0, another in a string of weak data releases. To add insult to injury crude oil fell 1.29 to 36.81 (CLG6), reversing about half of last week’s rally. March Corn made a new contract low […]
Dec 27. Spectrum of outcomes widening
It was a fairly quiet week. Treasuries added 4-6 bps in yield and stocks shook off the Fed rate hike and pushed higher. VIX and other volatility measures declined, while commodities had a tentative bounce with WTI up $2 on the week (CLG6 settle 38.10). However, on the year, both tens and SPX are about […]
