Ceasefire roller coaster
April 8, 2026
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–Ceasefire announcement sparked huge moves.
CLK6 95.09, -17.86. Halfway back from late Feb low (61.92) on CLK to yesterday high is 89.18 (low this morning 91.05). CL May/June calendar from 13.94 yesterday to 8.22.
ESM6 now 6833, +176.25. High on Feb 25 was 7035, 3/31 low 6353. The high of the year on 1/28 was 7096.50 so from year’s high to low 0.618 is 6812, currently above that level.
10y yield now 4.247, down nearly 10 bps from the 3pm level at futures settle (4.341). Feb 27 low to 3/27 high was 3.941 to 4.43, Halfway back is 4.19 which should be strong yield support. In futures the 50% retrace is 111-31, currently 111-17. Ten year auction today followed by 30s tomorrow. Thirty year yield now 4.85 from 4.92 at futures settle.
Gold has rallied but upside appears to have run out of steam.
Red SOFR contracts leading the way. Peak contract as of yesterday’s settles was SFRZ7 at 9654.5 or just below 3.5%. This morning Z7 prints 9664.5 +10, but SFRM7 is +12.5 at 9652.5. Short end rally is fairly muted.
FOMC minutes this afternoon.
