Data spasms – NFP today
June 6, 2025
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–In my highschool biology class, we did that little experiment with a dissected frog leg, using a couple of wires off a C battery, touching the ends to the leg and getting a twitch. It’s ALIVE! That’s how the market is trading: a news flash comes out saying the Trump and Xi spoke and it’s like a wire prod into e-minis. Jerked straight up. But it’s still dead money. ES and NQ both with outside days and lower closes after making new highs early.
–So they took it out of CoreWeave (CRWV), last month’s IPO darling (-17% yesterday) and and put it into Circle’s IPO (Circle has to do with stablecoins and digital assets. For the purposes of this note, we’ll just call it a circle jerk).
–Bonds also ran up early as ADP lower than expected. Other data fed into the stagflation theme: Productivity -1.5%, so Unit Labor Costs +6.6% and Jobless Claims 247k, highest since last October. I had seen a news clip that BLS was having trouble with inflation data due to funding cuts, and that accuracy might suffer. Here’s a google AI summary:
Budget cuts and a hiring freeze at the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) are impacting the collection of inflation data, potentially leading to less accurate and reliable Consumer Price Index (CPI) reports. This reduced data collection, particularly the price index, could affect the accuracy of inflation-adjusted Treasury bond interest rates, Social Security cost-of-living adjustments, and other economic indicators.
–Hmm. Ever hear of the Billion Price Project from MIT (2008). Or Truflation? How about scanning the internet for prices? In any case, BLS releases NFP today. which I am sure will be 100% accurate. Expected 125-130k. Unemployment rate expected 4.2%.
–Yields higher yesterday with 5y leading, +5.8 bps to 3.988%. Tens rose 2.8 to 4.391%. On the SOFR strip reds (2nd year) fell 5.625 to an avg 9667 or 3.33% and greens -6.375 to 9657.375 (3.43%). Seemed mostly like a position adjustment day in front of today’s data, which I think will be on the weak side. Failed breakout in copper yesterday (and lower this morning).
–From an MNI summary of market action: …Consumer Staples underperformed: Brown-Forman fell -16.2% after Canada & Europe cut back on Jack Daniels imports do (sic) to tariffs…”
Look, it’s time for Americans to band together:
