Day Baseball
July 11, 2025
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–Bitcoin new high this morning, nearing 119k. Market cap is $2.63T. Top 5 cryptos according to coinmarketcap.com have combined market cap of around $3T (bitcoin, ethereum, tether, xrp, bnb). Look around at the world’s political leadership. Bitcoin up over 7x since late 2022. NVDA market cap $4T.
–Waller says the Fed is restrictive and has room to cut. August FF settled at 9569 (EFFR is 4.33% or 9567). FOMC in 2.5 weeks. Ten year yield unch’d at 4.342%. Slightly higher in front, while 30y yield was about 1 bp lower after a solid auction. I marked wi at 4.888% at futures settle.
–Couple of large SOFR steepeners thru call spreads. Not recommendations, just interesting plays.
+20k 0QU5 9700/9750cs vs
-20k 3QU5 9675/9725cs
(6.5s vs 9676.5 & 5.5s vs 9652.0)
Paid 1.5 for 0QU, settled 1.0
+10k 2QU5 9700/9750cs vs
-10k 3QU5 9675/9725cs
(5.25s vs 9671.5 & 5.5s vs 9652.0)
Paid flat for 2QU, settled -0.25
Just considering the current shape of the SOFR strip, I might prefer green to blue (+2QU and -3QU). SFRM6 is 9664 and U6 is 9676.5, so spread of -12.5 implies that there’s a significant headwind on the 0QU call spread. SFRM7 to SFRU7 rolls POSITIVE, spd is +5.5, 9677 to 9671.5, while SFRM8 to SFRU8 is +4.5 (9656.5/9652). Of course, if we’re just looking at the current curve, all call spreads expire worthless. These trades require a shift in sentiment encompassing near-term, untethered, outsized, irresponsible easing (think Sue Eleen Mischke walking down the street, flouting society’s conventions).
–Lee Elia passed. If nothing else today, it’s worth listening to his famous 1983 rant (use headphones, there’s a LOT of profanity). OnTapSportsNet puts it this way:
Before he was known for a tirade, Lee Elia was trying to lead the Cubs out of the dark. He didn’t win a title, but he left behind something just as lasting, the truth.
