Feb 24. Bernanke today/ Consumer Confidence plunges
Consumer Confidence plunged to 46 rather than expected 55. The forward looking Expectations fell 13 to 63.8. Lest one thinks this number’s an outlier, ABC Consumer Comfort fell to -50, lowest since Oct ’09 and only 4 pts off 24 year low.
–Ten year yield dropped over 10 bps to 3.69%. The curve flattened as short end was held down by two year auction and the announcement of $200B SFP 8 week bills. This might finally mark a turn in the curve as the economy crashes and the inflation/deflation fight moves decisively in favor of the latter. 3.7% of “safe” yield at the long end will look like a home run in a couple of months from now.
–Bernanke gives semi-annual testimony today. Congressional emphasis will be on jobs, but there will probably also be reassurance that rates will be held near zero for the foreseeable future.
–Also today: 5 yr note auction and New Home Sales, expected 360k from 342k.
–(Reuters) – “The number of “problem” U.S. banks jumped 27% during the fourth qtr of 2009 to 702, the highest level since 1993″ according to FDIC.
–New Credit card law goes into effect Monday. HuffPost: “So a law hailed as the most sweeping piece of consumer legislation in decades has helped make it more difficult for millions of Americans to get credit, and made that credit more expensive.” (since banks cut accts and raised fees in advance)
–NY Post: Admin may drop plans to limit bank trading activities… so much for the “Volcker Rule”.
