Friars Win State! (and Farm Aid note)
December 3, 2025
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–First:
Congrats to Oak Park’s Fenwick Friars!
Fenwick shocks East St. Louis to win the 6A State Title
Huge night for Fenwick!
–Long end yields pressed higher Tuesday morning, but buyers came in and by the time of settlement, 10y yield was down about 1 bp to 4.085 and 30s down 0.5 to 4.739. TYH6 rose 2/32s to 112-285. Slight new high in 2/10 at 57.3, but that’s in the context of a months-long sideways trade. Needs to pop above 65 or so to indicate a chance of a breakout in the curve. SOFR contracts similarly muted at settle, with strip of 5 years +1 to +2. Peak contract SFRH7 settled +2.0 at 9694.5. Exit seller of 30k 0QF6 9700/9725cs at 6.0 (some covered). SFRH7 is underlying. Even with all the jawboning about a new, less independent Fed, red SOFR contracts aren’t straying far from a ‘terminal rate’ projection of around 2.75-3%. Red pack, second year forward, settled 3.07%.
–Amazing to me that SFRZ5 9625 straddle settled 5.0 (ref 9627) with 9 days until expiry (7 trading sessions). FOMC is 10-Dec. While FFF6 shows near certainty of a 25 bp cut, settling 9635 or 3.65 vs current EFFR of 3.89, we’re still in a fragile world with obvious dissension within the Fed…and everywhere else. Z5 9625p settled 1.5. 9631.25c settled 0.25, 9631.25/9637.5cs bought early yesterday for 0.25. [Back up the truck]. On the other side of the world, JGB yields continue to press to new highs, with 10y 1.90% today.
FARM AID
–In 1985 the first Farm Aid concert was organized. I associate it with Willie Nelson and John Mellencamp and Neil Young.
https://ipmnewsroom.org/quite-remarkable-the-farm-aid-benefit-concert-which-started-in-champaign-celebrates-40-years/
Forty years ago, a bushel of corn was around $2.90 and wheat around $3.25. Gold was $325/oz. This morning March Corn is 4.48 and March Wheat 5.41, not even double in FORTY YEARS! Feb Gold is $4232/oz, up 13x. In 1985, the US 10y went from 11% to 9%.
From KC Fed report last week:
Weakness in the crop sector weighed further on farm finances, and credit conditions tightened gradually in the third quarter of 2025. According to Federal Reserve District Surveys of Agricultural Credit Conditions, farm income and loan repayment rates in the Midwest and Plains States declined at a pace similar to recent months.
https://www.kansascityfed.org/agriculture/agfinance-updates/credit-conditions-tighten-gradually
Newsflash yesterday: Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins says the Trump administration will announce a “bridge payment” for farmers next week, designed to provide short‑term relief while longer trade and aid packages are finalized.
From last week: Hansen-Mueller Co., a Nebraska grain dealer, stunned the Midwest when it filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy on 17 November 2025. The company has been in business for over a century, and owes hundreds of millions of dollars to farmers and creditors nationwide.
You might be forgiven for saying, who gives an F about bitcoin…
An honest man’s pillow is his peace of mind
