Grinding up the wall of no worries
April 15, 2026
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–Another low volume day with stocks and bonds grinding to new recent highs. All-time high settle in ESM6 is 7070 on Jan 12, and late price was 7004. ESM6 has rocketed over 10% higher from the March 31 low. Bonds aren’t as frothy, but the high yield in the 30y was 4.966 on March 27; at futures settle I marked it at 4.867. CLK6, having traded as high as 117.63 on April 7, was 92.18 late. The market is convinced of endless liquidity. Is it despite the backdrop, or because of it?
-Consumer Confidence at all-time low.
-Americans have never been this pessimistic about their financial situation: A record 54% of US consumers now say their financial situation is worse compared to a year ago due to higher prices.
-NFIB Small Biz Optimism at new low for this year at 95.8, which equals last year’s low. From the report: The Uncertainty Index rose 4 points from February to 92, well above its historical average of 68.
-CRE problems: properties being sold for pennies on the dollar, and private equity/credit funds under the gun.
TCW Marks Down Red Lobster Equity Stake by 98% While Keeping Private Credit Debt at Par [Grok summary]
TCW slashed the value of its equity position in Red Lobster by approximately 98% overnight, reducing shares held by a private credit fund it oversees to under $1 million since acquiring them via the restaurant’s 2024 bankruptcy. Despite the equity wipeout, TCW marked the value of its large Red Lobster debt holding, maturing in 2029, to par over five consecutive quarters
–Ten year yield fell 4.1 bps yesterday to 4.867%. On the SOFR strip, contracts in years 2, 3, 4 and 5 (reds thru golds) were up 3 to 4.,5 bps. Peak SOFR contract slipped back one slot to SFRH8, which settled 9665 or 3.35%, compared to current EFFR 3.64%. However, largest SOFR call trades appear to be exits. Example, -25k SFRZ6 9650/9675cs at 10 (settled 10 vs 9641). Same cs sold 20k vs buy 10k SFRZ6 9631.25p 3.25 to 3.5. Open interest down 39k in Z6 9650c and -17k 9675c.
–I skimmed open interest sheets this morning and volume is simply amemic. Just looking at quarterly midcurve calls:
0QN calls, 3k traded. 0QQ, 0. 0QU 550, 0QZ 50k, 0QH 0. In ALL green midcurve calls, total volume across months was just 450 contracts. So between red and green mid calls, 54k.
–In treasuries there were some put rolls out of May and into July. Sold TYK 110.5p and bought July 109.5 and 109 puts. TYU6 settled 111-12. TYN 109.5p 22s, OI +55k. TYN 109p 17s, OI +25k.
–Quick FF note: I am marking FFF7 and FFF8 on my sprdsheet. The calendar settled -52.5. (9645.5/9698). Out of whack with SFRZ6/Z7 which settled -23.5. That’s because there is ZERO open interest in FFZ8. Late quote on box: 9635.5 bid/9813.0 offer. Be careful of published prices.
Just for fun:
10 ACCIDENTAL Songs From the ’60s That Made MILLIONS!
…the soundtrack of a generation, the 1960s.
“It is a puzzling reminder that in music [and perhaps in human affairs at large], sometimes the things we throw away are the very things the world decides to keep forever.”
Some great stuff in this video. I had no idea that in-a-gadda-da-vida was supposed to refer to the garden of eden, but the singer was hammered and slurring.
