If intellectual property is worth less, isn’t the stock market as well?
August 28, 2025
*****************
–Large trades include buy of 40k SFRH6 9675/9725cs for 8.5. Recall August 20 a buyer of 60k SFRH6 9725c 6 to 6.5. I had thought the call spread was a roll, but open interest went up in both strikes (less in 9725). In any case, longs in SFRH6 upside continue to build. Future settled 9650.5 (3.5%). Call spread settled 8.5 (15.0/6.5).
–New buyer of 28k FVV 108.5p cov’d 109-1425 to 1475, 18d, paid 6.5. Settle 6.5 vs 109-1425. Long puts in front of today’s upcoming 7-year after unspectacular 5y? Also a late buy of 14k FVZ5 111c for 18.
–With treasury rolls ending, total open interest in treasury futures plunged yesterday. FV net lost 302k, and TY down 287k. Across all treasury futures, 1.4 million positions disappeared. Yields generally lower, though 30y was up just slightly. 10y -1.6 bp at 4.238%. In SOFR, new lows in near calendars with SFRU5/U6 -105 (9590/9695) down 1 on the day. SFRZ5/Z6 -79.5, down 1.5 (9623.5/9703). Reds thru golds +2 to +4. Peak contract is SFRH7 at 9705 (+2.5) essentially equal to the high settle of any SOFR contract this calendar year. On the treasury curve, new highs in 2/10 at 61.7 (the lower yield of the new 2y partially responsibe), and new high in 5/30 at 120.8 (3.705/4.913). Also worth noting is a new high in 10y treasury/tip breakeven at 244.6. Yes, inflation concerns are growing. No, it won’t stop the Fed from easing because jobs are more important.
–Today’s news includes Q2 GDP expected 3.1 from initial estimate of 3.0 Jobless Claims 230k.
–I found this snippet from the Deep View missive interesting:
The Association of American Publishers noted that “AI can’t exist without using human authorship” — yet the industry’s response has been taking that authorship without permission or payment. Whatever Anthropic paid in settlement is almost certainly less than proper licensing would have cost upfront.
The tech industry is substantially built on the pillars of intellectual property and its legal protection. AI is “stealing?” much of that property and massaging it for (potential) profit. Ramifications?
