Insiders
January 30, 2026
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–Largest trade of the day Thursday was +50k USK 128/131cs for 2. Settled 3 vs 114-24 in USM. Disaster insurance; neither strike had open interest coming in. This morning however, it appears that insurance premium would have been better spent on the downside, as USH6 currently prints 114-23, down half a point from settle of 115-07. Vols actually firmed slightly in rate futures, though there was a late seller of 15k TYH 112^ at 56 (55s ref 111-275). There was a buyer yesterday of 50k April VIX 80c for 0.37. Seems pricey, but the idea of wingy insurance seems to have taken hold across markets.
–The culprit for this early morning’s weakness is said to be Trump’s announcement of Warsh for Fed Chair. After several days of hearing Rieder was front-runner, betting sites or prediction markets or insider playgrounds showed odds for Warsh instantly vaulting higher. The announcement is supposed to occur (to the general public) today, but if Trump is disappointed by the market’s message, there could easily be a delay.
–Crude oil slightly lower this morning after a recent surge. CLH6 ended 2025 at 5722 and settled 6542 yesterday, with constant rumors of another Iran attack.
–Currently stocks and bonds both indicate weakness, with ESH 6932, -60.75. Gold is down 5% and the silver future is down 13%. Given wild price swings recently, maybe Warsh is simply the excuse du jour. Interestingly, MSFT was down 10% yesterday while META was UP 10%. Sandisk (SNDK) reported yesterday. Started the year at 240, closed at a new high yesterday of 540 and prints over 640 pre-open. Some incredibly large capital swings in individual names that suggest instability going forward.
–Contrast that idea with the SOFR strip. The white pack (H6+M6+U6+Z6)/4 settled 9661.125. Reds 9673.125. Greens 9653. Blues 9632.875. So whites/reds settled -12, a nod to the possibility of easing. Red/green and green/blue spreads both settled +20.125, so the red/green/blue fly is at zero. That rolling fly has been a few bps either side of zero, but the notion of a linear curve several years out suggests no clear perception of forward Fed policy, at least in terms of timing.
