No gov’t data, but plenty of gov’t edicts
October 23, 2025
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–Here was one headline yesterday: (RTRS) US considering curbs on exports to China made with US software, sources say. Contributed to equity weakness. And here’s one from this morning causing crude oil to jump: (RTRS) Trump sanctions Russian oil majors, prompting oil price rise and India jitters. This morning CLZ5 is $61.40, +2.90, up nearly 5%.
–The big trade yesterday was a buy of 100k SFRH6 9637.5/9631.25ps covered with 6 delta from 9662.5 to 64. Settled 1.5 vs 9664.5. To give a sense of how this might move: SFRZ5 settled right at the top strike, 9637.5. The same put spread in Z5 settled 2.5. Not quite like crypto futures.
–Despite weakness in some single name stocks, ESZ5 was only down 0.5%. Rates barely changed with both 2 and 10y notes down around 1 bp in yield (3.442 and 3.949). It’s worth noting that the 2y yield is down nearly 100 bps since the high in January just over 4.40. SOFR contracts +1 to -1 out four years. Peak contract SFRH7 settled 9709.5 (+1.0), or 2.905% vs current Fed Effective 4.11%, a spread of nearly 125 bps. More interest in upside, for example +15k SFRU6 9750/9800cs for 7.75, settled there vs 9703.0. [NFLX -10%, MSTR -7%]
–November treasury options expire tomorrow. CPI being released in the morning. TYX5 113.75^ settled 25 vs 113-255. TYZ5 114^ settled 1’21.
–Supreme Court begins to hear oral arguments on the legality of Trump’s tariffs on Nov 5. Not sure how long it takes to play out.
