No sellers left with stocks at new highs
April 17, 2026
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–Yields rose Thursday, with tens up 2.9 bps to 4.307%. Buyer early of 50k TY wk2 May 112.5c for 10, covered 111-14, 16d. These calls expire on NFP day, May 8. (settle 8 vs 111-07). Last week he bought 50k TY wk1 May 112.0c which also settled yesterday at 8. On the put side, a bit more buying of TYN6 109.5p. TYN6 109p and 109.5p are now the concentrated open interest with OI 72k and 149k respectively. (settles 22, 0.22d, and 28, 0.27d). High gamma calls. Normal protection further out in July (expiration date June 26).
Polymkt X post yesterday:
JUST IN: Former Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson calls on U.S. authorities to prepare for a “vicious” bond crash.
There’s a nice push for the prediction markets! Or better yet, Bessent can throw down with Paulson. God I wish there was a prediction market for THAT. Anyway, Bessent is likely already to do whatever it takes to keep bond yields from exploding.
–Worth a note. 2/10 edged to a slight new recent high at 53.1 as did 5/30 at 101.6, but these are somewhat muted rallies off March lows of 42.4 and 83.9, sort of like gold.
–On a more worrisome note, there have been a series of refinery explosions/accidents across the globe. I am linking several X posts. Though CLK6 is currently down 3.60 at 91.09.
From Bogachan Ozdemir:
45 incidents last 45 days … refineries are blowing up all around the world…. not only war zones but in Australia, Indonesia…. today Mexico….
From Andrew Bridgen:
Another coincidence… Massive fire reported at the Dos Bocas Refinery in Tabasco, Mexico 9th April, 2026. …The world’s energy and oil refinery infrastructure is being targeted by those who want to inflict energy lockdowns on us all.
From Rhonda Garad:
Extraordinary-all 4 events happening at once. Australia’s -largest fertilizer producer shut down, -biggest oil refinery on fire -two major gas terminals in WA knocked out.
https://twitter.com/AutumnMandrake/status/2044765087072964880/photo/1
RTRS: A fire at the largest of Australia’s two oil refineries has hit petrol production, company and government officials said on Thursday, just as the nation faces pressure to shore up fuel security with the Iran war disrupting global supply. [I read somewhere else that this refinery incident will have the effect of shutting down gold mining]
Doomberg reports: “In a scandal that defies belief, the member states of the EU have exited the winter of 2025–2026 with disastrously low stores of natural gas just as the war in Iran has closed the Strait of Hormuz, taking 20% of the world’s supply of liquefied natural gas (LNG) offline.”
–Global decline in standards of living around the corner…
