Notes. Gold/Silver
June 10, 2025
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–Yields down a bit on Monday, with 10s -2.8 bps to 4.48%. SFRZ6 is the peak SOFR contract, and it was also the strongest performer yesterday, +6 bps to 9662.5.
–3y auction today. NFIB Small Business Optimism as well, expected 96. CPI is Wednesday, expected 0.2 with Core 0.3 m/m, 2.5 and 2.9 y/y.
–One large trade 0QV5 9637.5/9612.5/9587.5 put tree about 25k bought from 3.5 to ~4.25. Settled 4.0. Underlying is peak contract mentioned above, SFRZ6 at 9662.5. A continuing theme is based on the Fed remaining stingy, and forward contracts rolling lower. (U5 is 9658 and M5 is 9648). Using a tree (selling an extra put) to express this view leaves open ended downside risk, but pricing and sentiment suggests little fear of an actual reversal by the Fed.
–Q1 Z.1 Fed Report is released Thursday for Q1. At the end of Q1 Total HH Assets were pegged at $190.2T, with Net Worth $169T. SPX fell by 4.6% in Q1. HH Real Estate will almost certainly be marked higher (~3%). Total Liabilities have remained fairly constant and are likely $21T now. My guess is that Net Worth will decline about 2% to $165.5T from $169 in Q4.
–Silver spiked to nearly $50/oz in 1980 (Hunt Bros silver corner) and in 2011. Last price 36.60 in a new breakout. Gold/silver ratio has abruptly reversed.
