Rate futures find footing
February 5, 2025
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–Near one-year sofr calendars are pressing lower as reds led to the upside (+6.125). SFRH5/H6 settled -36.5 (9574.5, +1 and 9611.0, +5.5). In treasuries the 2y yield fell 5 bps to 4.21% while 10s were down 3 bps to 4.54, so that spread bounced a couple to 30 bps. Overall, the session was quiet.
–JOLTs number was low (7600k vs 8000k expected) which captured the attention of the market. You know it’s boring when JOLTs is the main feature; back to 2019 levels. The inflation mandate still holds sway, but maybe labor concerns will flare again. Payrolls on Friday. By the way, high JOLTs in 2022 was over 12000.
–GOOGL got whacked on earnings and is -7% this morning. On Friday I had thought TY might surpass 109-16 strike. It didn’t, but this morning prints 109-14. USH5 had a low of 113-18 yesterday morning, but now prints 115-07.
–Platinum cheap. New all-time high in gold; platinum is cheaper to gold than it ever has been. (Market Huddle guest Ole Hansen mentioned it this weekend).
–More SFRZ5 9700c vs 0QZ5 9750c 3.5 for 15k. Settles: 10.75 vs 9607.5 and 7.25 vs 9611.0. Buying front Dec…works well in a disaster, otherwise there’s a slow roll down’ negative carry.
–ISM Services today expected 54 from 54.1. ADP expected 150k from 122k last.
