Treasuries once again act as safe harbor
February 17, 2026
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–Treasury futures are currently at two month highs as stocks can’t seem to hold a bid. TYH6 is 113-11+, with 10y yield 4.027. FVH6 is 109-255 with 5y yield 3.581, There are three lows in 5y around 3.56… Sept 8, 3.562, Oct 16, 3.548 and Nov 25, 3.564. A breakdown through 3.55 should see follow-through. Treasuries are now trading inversely with stocks. As mentioned, late Friday there was a new buyer 40k TYJ 112/114 risk rev vs 112-315, pay 6 for call. This morning, I check TYJ6 112.5/113.5 rr vs 113-12 and get 2/3 for call.
–March treasury options expire Friday. Currently TYH6 113.5^ is 32/33 ref 113-12. Treasury rolls become more active now as March opts expire.
–Quiet action yesterday though the ten year roll, TYH6/M6 was sold at 2.5. Currently 2.25/2.5. TYM6 duration is about 3% more than TYH6, so a full point rally is worth about 1/32 to the calendar roll, or 0.25 for every quarter point. TYH6 DV01 $66.40 and TYM6 $68.35.
–News today includes ADP Weekly and Empire Mfg, expected 6.2 from 7.7. Just as a reminder, a lot of analysts are mentioning a large increase in US income tax refunds as possible temporary support for stocks. I’m not sure I buy into that thought process, but it is worth remembering there’s a shot of fiscal stimulus being administered. I believe I heard $60 billion more this year than last, in aggregate.
One last item is a nice summary of Chicago Commercial Property by Nightingale Associates:
Chicago Office Sales
250 S. Wacker Drive ↓74% $23.8M vs $90M in 2011
175 W. Jackson Blvd ↓87% $41M vs $306M in 2018
600 W. Chicago Ave ↓82.5% $89M vs $510M in 2018
311 S. Wacker Drive ↓85% $45M vs $302M in 2014
200 S. Wacker Drive ↓68% $68M vs $215M in 2013
401 S. State St. ↓94% $4.2M vs $68.1M in 2016
70 W. Madison St. ↓77.5% $85M vs $377M in 2014
300 W. Adams St ↓92% $4M vs $51M in 2012
100 N. Riverside Plaza ↓87% Boeing leasehold interest $22M vs $165M in 2005
And, I’ve got it on good authority….Bears moving to Indiana.
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