You Got a Friend
October 1, 2025
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–What if they shut down the US Gov’t, and the treasury market didn’t care? Pre-shutdown TYZ5 settled 112-165. This morning, TYZ5 112-160. Probably not welcome news for the guy accumulating TYZ calls covered. Yesterday, bought 75k TYZ5 113c paid 46 for 50k vs 112-19, 42d and paid 49 for 25k vs 112-22 with 45d. Adds to last week: +175k TYZ5 114c delta neutral ~ 112-25. Then bought 125k TYZ5 113.5c ~ 112-21. Open interest in the three strikes, 113c 221k, 113.5c 191k and 114c 252k.
–Consumer Confidence came in low at 94.2 and the gov’t shutdown likely won’t help. From the Conference Board:
“Consumers’ assessment of business conditions was much less positive than in recent months, while their appraisal of current job availability fell for the ninth straight month to reach a new multiyear low.”
–FFX5 settled 9614.5, +1.5 on the day. Rate is 3.855 vs current 4.09 which is where EFFR has been. So 23.5 bps for the Oct 29 FOMC.
–In case missed from yesterday: (BBG) Millennium Mgmt is one of the biggest Wall Street names to get hit by the sudden unraveling of the auto-parts supplier First Brands Group. …loss is expected to total about $100 million.
How did you go bankrupt? Gradually and then suddenly.
–A couple of other large option plays: +6k TYZ5 113/1135/114/114.5c condor 4x4x4x3 pay 0 net prem for 6k. It’s the one extra 113/113.5/114c tree that can cause a sudden problem.
Late in the session, TYZ5 113/114/124c fly -3 paid 16k. Settles 43, 24, 1, so -4. This guy capped off the top. You know what it means, right? Going to 123.
–And, they’re giddy for gold and bitcoin again.
–Some amusing news from NYC:
https://futurism.com/artificial-intelligence/million-dollar-ai-campaign-defaced
And he got exactly that. Messages scrawled across the ads read “stop profiting off of loneliness,” “AI wouldn’t care if you lived or died,” “go make real friends,” “this is surveillance,” and “AI will promote suicide when prompted.”
In a scathing review from Wired, two journalists found Friend snarky, sarcastic, unhelpful, as well as surprisinglyargumentative and holier-than-thou.
I certainly don’t need AI for that!
