Archive for the ‘Eurodollar Options’ Category
Vanity
July 18, 2020 – Weekly comment “This attracted a large youtube following, with thousands of views. Young men were particularly attracted to his message, which promised a new order, and a rejection of the suits who ran investment funds.” I know. It sounds a little bit like Portnoy. But the actual quote refers to a […]
Smith Wesson and me
July 17, 2020 –Once again, yields little changed on light volume with tens down 1,5 to 61.2. The thirty year mortgage rate fell below 3% for the first time (2.98%) aiding the flow of urban dwellers to the suburbs. In eurodollars, back calendar spreads are grinding to new recent lows. Red/gold pack spread fell 1.75 […]
Low vol
July 16, 2020 –Once again, little movement in rates with tens up 1.3 to 62.7 bps. Euro$’s down 0.5 to 1.5 out to five years. Attached to this note is Five Year treasury vol. I marked FVU0 atm straddle at just 1.45 vol yesterday. That’s around the historically low level in late 2012, after Draghi’s […]
The fight is against downside risks. Period
July 15, 2020 –Both stocks and bonds rallied yesterday with tens down 2.4 to 61.4 bps. CPI higher than expected 0.6 with yoy Core 1.2% and NFIB was much stronger than expected at 100.6. However, Fed officials continue to focus on downside risks. For example, Bullard said the Fed will keep rates low for the […]
Keep shoveling
July 14, 2020 –The fever finally broke in Nasdaq with NQU posting an outside day key reversal with a large range. New all-time high, lower daily low and lower close. These signals haven’t worked well recently, and neither ESU nor RTYU had outside days, but trade ended sloppily lower. The catalyst might have been more COVID, with CA […]
“Earnings” season
July 13, 2020 –Friday saw a bounce in the curve with 2/10 up 2.4 bps to 48 bps, and red/gold pack spread up just over 5 to 45.25. Stocks continue to rise and are higher this morning as earnings season kicks off. JPM, Wells and Citi all report tomorrow. As Nasdaq soars to new all-time […]
Signals
July 12, 2020 Many large investors have complained that the market is no longer sending out reliable signals, making it impossible to invest and generate consistent returns. More recently, attention has centered on “retail bros” upending sensible investing. However, the market IS sending out signals. They’re just not the ones that many (myself included) want […]
It’s the weekend
July 10, 2020 –Stocks began to retreat on the Supreme Court ruling that paved the way for release of Trump’s tax returns. Russell led the way, Nasdaq is pretty much immune. Yields fell, nearing all-time lows. Tens fell 5 bps to 60.4, while twos ended at 14.9 and this morning are 14.3, a new historic […]
Silver > $19
July 9, 2020 –New high China stocks today and as of this writing spot silver has pierced $19 in what could be an upside breakout. –Dull trading in rates yesterday with yields little changed as tens closed at 65.3 bps, essentially unch’d. The highest point on the euro$ curve is EDU’21 at 9983 or 17 […]
Gold grinding to new high
July 8, 2020 –Gold turned around and closed on a new high yesterday, now testing old highs from 2012. The peak was in Sept 2012 at 1921, but 1800 is a big level and spot is just above that price this morning. GCQ0 settled 1809.90. –Rates are dead in the water in spite of ten […]
