Archive for the ‘Eurodollar Options’ Category
Long end concerns
December 5, 2025******************* –Rate contracts now have very bearish chart set-ups. Quite clear on TLT chart…H&S top. Price 88.53, right at the 200DMA 88.41. A break below that projects to 84.50/84.60. Could get ugly quick. The only reasons I don’t have super-high conviction is that implied vol is being pressed lower (in TY), and volumes […]
Friars Win State! (and Farm Aid note)
December 3, 2025********************–First:Congrats to Oak Park’s Fenwick Friars!Fenwick shocks East St. Louis to win the 6A State TitleHuge night for Fenwick! –Long end yields pressed higher Tuesday morning, but buyers came in and by the time of settlement, 10y yield was down about 1 bp to 4.085 and 30s down 0.5 to 4.739. TYH6 rose 2/32s […]
Don’t Worry, Be Happy
December 2, 2025*******************–Rate futures weakened significantly yesterday with 10 and 30 year bond yields up 8 bps to 4.094% and 4.744%. Curve steepened somewhat with 2s rising 5 bps to 3.539%. A couple of bearish factors were concerns relating to a new Fed composition and surging Japanese yields. All SOFR contracts are below 9700 or […]
Getting around to some delayed projects
December 1, 2025*******************–I wasn’t in on Friday. Out doing some overdue repair work. Oh yes, cooling systems are being upgraded. –Warren Buffet had been attracted to silver due to the supply/demand deficit. Charlie Munger was clearly miffed whenever the topic came up, because 1) he didn’t like owning things that don’t provide a stream of […]
Household Real Estate Stress
November 30, 2025 – Weekly comment****************************************** According to the St Louis Fed website (FRED) :Household Owners’ Equity in Real Estate as a Percentage of HH RE (Household Real Estate) has soared since the GFC, and is now 72.5%, the highest level since before 1960. The low in 2012 was 46%. Most people are surprised by […]
In: Eurodollar Options
EXTENDED holiday
November 28, 2025*********************–CME is still off line due to a cooling issue at its data center. Funny, as it’s right at the freezing point in Chicago! –Friday’s features included exit sales of ERIS SOFR swaps: -35k YIYZ25 (10y) and -25k YIWZ25 (5y). Trades were entered in early Nov, and appear to have worked out as […]
Hassett priced?
November 26, 2025******************** –Markets perked up a bit when a newsflash indicated that Kevin Hassett was a front-runner for the Fed Chairmanship. New low in SFRH6/H7 one-year calendar at -57.5 (9646.5, +0.5 and 9704.0, +4.0). SFRH6/U6 six-month spread captures the end of Powell’s term settled -45 (9646.5/9691.5) down 2.5. However, 2/10 spread barely moved at […]
Rate Cut Uncertainty Receding
November 25, 2025********************* –Yesterday afternoon WSJ reported that SF Fed’s Daly said she can support a rate cut in December. Daly’s not a voter, but my view is that she follows whatever Powell wants, so I view this story as a signal that Powell favors a rate cut. SFRZ5 was the strongest contract on the […]
What if Fed Cuts in Dec and no one cares
November 24, 2025********************** -Friday’s price action depended heavily on this early morning quote from NY Fed President Williams: “I view monetary policy as being modestly restrictive, although somewhat less so than before our recent actions. Therefore, I still see room for a further adjustment in the near term to the target range for the federal […]
Hunker Down
November 23, 2025 – Weekly comment***************************************** I don’t care much for folksy tunes, but I was driving around listening to a college radio station and caught this one. Hunker Down by Christo Graham. Fits the market mood. It’s time to get to workGet your feet in the dirtLook at you, look at meLook aroundIt’s time […]
