Oil is climbing this morning, as are global yields
April 28, 2026
***************
–CLM6 (June WTI) is just below $100 bbl as of this Tuesday morning, last at 99.67 +3.30. The highest settle of this particular contract has been 99.38 on 7-Apr. Coinciding with higher energy prices, global 10y yields are moving up and appear to want to break out to the upside.
–First, BOJ did not hike, but there were three dissenters in favor of an immediate raise. Japan 10y JGB now 2.464, at a new high, double the yield from a year ago. However, $/yen dipped briefly and is now 159.58, appears poised to break out above 160 adding to inflationary pressure. ECB and BOE are Thursday. German 10y bund is 3.058, +2.5 bps; there’s a double top at 3.09 (3/27 and 4/13) that appears vulnerable. UK 10y Gilt is 4.983, now testing the late March high of 4.99. US 10y is 4.356, up a couple from yesterday’s mark at the futures settle, but well below the late March high of 4.43. US auctions 7y note today. FOMC tomorrow. Conference Board Consumer Sentiment today.
–There were a few large new put buys on treasuries. TY wk5 THUR (4/30 expiry) 110.75p 6 paid 50k (hedge for 7 yr?) BBG symbol TJWJ26P5 110.75. Also +50k TY wk1 Fri (5/1) 110.75/110.5ps covered 111-00, 4 paid 50k. Finally USN6 110p 41 paid 30k. Settled 48 with 25d vs USU6 113-07. Flows tend to support a view for higher yields, though high gamma TY put buys could just be short term hedges.
–Gold continues to retreat from the mid-April high near 4900. Spot currently at the recent low of 4613, down $69 today.
–SOFR contracts were down 2-3.5 across the board yesterday (and another 1-3 this morning). The Fed Effective rate (EFFR) is 3.64%. SOFR Rate is 3.66%. SFRM6 is 9634, exactly at EFFR. The peak contract is SFRH8 at 9654, now only 20 bps lower in yield than SFRM6. The market continues to squeeze out easing prospects. SFRH8 as of this note is 9651.5.
–A couple of lower K items:
@jeffreytucker
Some 40% of auto loans are now underwater, a historical high. This problem traces to the lockdowns of 2020 which restricted supply and caused a huge price increase. Buyers took on more debt than they could handle and now face trade-in valuations that are far less than loan equity.
U.S. Farm Bankruptcies Surge +46% as Fertilizer Costs Squeeze Farmers: The American Farm Bureau Federation reported 315 Chapter 12 bankruptcy filings in 2025, up from 216 in 2024 and the third consecutive annual increase. The Midwest got hit hardest with 121 filings, a +70% jump. The Southeast followed with 105, up +69%. Together, those two regions accounted for more than two-thirds of every farm bankruptcy in the country. Fertilizer prices are pouring gasoline on the fire. Urea, the most widely used nitrogen fertilizer on the planet, has ripped +87% year-to-date and trades near $720 a tonne.
Big Event Week
April 27, 2026
***************
–Friday featured a small reprieve from the move to higher rates. 2y yield fell almost 5 bps to 3.774%. 10s -1.5 to 4.307%. Strongest SOFR contract was SFRH7 which rose 6 bps to 9642 (3.58% vs EFFR of 3.64%). Low last week was 9633.5. Peak SOFR contract is SFRH8 at 9657. Ten yr treasury/tip breakeven made a new high 243 bps. Since 2023 this spread has been capped around 250 bps, a move above that would signal heightened concern about inflation. CLM6 at time of writing Monday morning is 96.52, +2.12 on the day.
— Not much in the way of economic data today but 2 and 5 year notes are auctioned, $69b and $70b. 7yr on Tuesday ($44b). The rest of the week is packed with central bank decisions and earnings. (BBG) BOJ sets rates Tuesday, the FOMC is Wednesday, and the BOE and ECB on Thursday. META, AMZN, GOOGL and MSFT report Wednesday. AAPL, OWL earnings and US growth land Thursday, while Exxon posts on Friday.
–Interesting X post says that in Texas a few years ago “… sub-4% mortgages were more than 3x as common as 5%+ mortgages. But now they’re nearly the same.” The implication is the thawing of housing with more price cuts. (I’m not certain that current mortgage rates support that view; Bankrate 30y fixed now 6.35%,
World’s a Casino
April 26, 2026 – Weekly comment
************************************
The whole world, unfortunately, has become somewhat of a casino. And you look at what’s going on all over the world, in Europe and every place they’re doing these betting things. I was never much in favor of it, I don’t like it conceptually, but it is what it is… It’s a crazy world. -DJT
From John Lothian News, an interesting summary on prediction markets and risks:
I warn that this [prediction markets] surge raises hard questions about where the line between regulated derivatives and gambling now sits, and about how much political and regulatory risk the traditional exchanges are taking on by tying their brands to a business built on betting on real‑world events.
At the donut shop: You gotta guy here, Warsh, who is touting the AI boom as a generational catalyst to increase productivity, which in turns supports the case for lower rates. Lower rates support financial asset markets which exacerbates the inequality gap, and may simultaneously boost inflationary pressures as the ‘haves’ account for an oversized share of consumption.
Currently the market is shifting to greater concern about inflation, more on that below.
From Nick Timiraos re Warsh confirmation, now that the DOJ has dropped the Powell ‘investigation’:
“…If this satisfies Tillis’s objections, then here’s what the calendar looks like for the Warsh confirmation vote: Powell’s term ends May 15, three weeks from today. The Senate is in session next week, out the following, and then back. It’s a tight turnaround, but doable.”
From ZeroHedge citing Econ Collapse Blog:
For the first time ever, the price of a pound of ground beef is now higher than the federal minimum wage in many parts of the country…
On the other hand, the federal minimum wage sits at $7.25 per hour.
Coincidentally, Home Depot is running a special on pitchforks and torches in many parts of the country…
The chart below is the 10y breakeven, which is approaching 2.50%. more or less a cap since 2023.
While I don’t consider this a particularly strong signal on future inflation, it does sync with several market signals from last week. Treasury yields from 2s to 30s rose 6 to 8 bps on the week, with 2’s 3.775%, just above the FF target range. SFRZ7 has been the peak SOFR contract (now back one slot to SFRH8) and Z7 settled 9656, down 12 bps on the week (rate of 3.44%). The high settle on Feb 27 associated with the onset of Iran attacks was 9704. The Fed’s March dot plot pegged the end-of-2026 FF target at 3.4%, indicating a 25 bp cut from the current FF midpoint of 3.625, and an end-of-2027 target of 3.1% indicating one more ease in 2027. SFRZ6 settled 9641.0 almost equal to the current midpoint, and Z7 at 9656 is nearing Z6 with Z6/Z7 one-year calendar settling at a new high for April -15.0 (+5 on the week). Anecdotal stories like the ground beef clip above tend to highlight inflationary pressures. For example the P&G earnings call cited increased input costs. On the other hand, there are widespread reports of housing price cuts, which should keep the shelter component of CPI contained. Redfin reports that the median price in March was up 1.1% yoy, while Zillow forecasts an increase of just 0.3% for home values in 2026. “According to the Realtor.com® economic research team’s latest weekly market update, new listings are surging, total inventory is rising, and asking prices continue to retreat as mortgage rates ease. …On a square-foot basis, prices dropped 2.3% year over year, the 13th straight week of declines exceeding 2%.”
In the US, the question is whether the energy price shock will translate into a durable increase in inflation, or whether the effects will be transitory and a weaker labor market will smother the economy in a blanket of disinflation. In Europe, that question appears to have resolved to the former as an energy crisis looms. On the week, the German 2y rose 13.5 bps to 2.54% (peak level from 4/7 is 2.715%). Though the ECB is expected to hold policy on Thursday, future hikes are being priced. For example, June26/Dec26 Euribor calendar printed -5.5 bps on 2/27 (9797.0/9802.5), but has since surged to +32.5 on Friday (9764/9731.5)! Same timeframe SFRM6/SFRZ6 went from -41 .0 to -7.0, less in magnitude, but US is still slightly inverted. (SFRM6 from 9653.5 to 9634.0 and Z6 from 9694.5 to 9641.0).
CLM6 settled 94.40 on Friday, +11.81 on the week.
One last interesting market tidbit brought up by Luke Gromen. In a podcast several days ago he said the USD is already being partially supplanted by gold and the yuan, and offered this evidence: “In 4 of the last 5 months as the US trade gap has narrowed, the number one export of the US has been non-monetary gold…which is going to China, Hong Kong, Switzerland.” I couldn’t find monthly data, but here’s a quarterly chart from the St Louis Fed Fred website on non-monetary gold exports:
Looks an awful lot like burning the furniture to heat the house.
(BBG) BOJ sets rates Tuesday, the FOMC is Wednesday, and the BOE and ECB on Thursday. META, AMZN, GOOGL and MSFT report Wednesday. AAPL, OWL earnings and US growth land Thursday, while Exxon posts on Friday. Treasury auctions 2’s & 5s Monday and 7s on Tuesday.
OTHER THOUGHTS / TRADES
There were decent size SOFR option trades in both directions last week. An add to long 0QZ6 9750/9800cs for 3.25. Settled Friday 3.5 vs 9656.0, total position >200k.
I would also mention from Friday a buy of 23k 0QN6 9618.75/9593.75 ps for 3.5. Settled 3.5 ref SFRU7 9651.0. Expires 7/10, U7 underlying. Obviously this trade requires a fairly hard shift in market sentiment towards hikes as the top strike is 3.8125% vs current EFFR of 3.64%. However, as the euribor calendars display, that sentiment change can occur fairly quickly.
| 4/17/2026 | 4/24/2026 | chg | ||
| UST 2Y | 370.0 | 377.4 | 7.4 | wi 377.9 |
| UST 5Y | 383.8 | 391.8 | 8.0 | wi 392.3 |
| UST 10Y | 424.4 | 430.7 | 6.3 | |
| UST 30Y | 488.3 | 495.3 | 7.0 | |
| GERM 2Y | 240.5 | 254.1 | 13.6 | |
| GERM 10Y | 295.8 | 299.2 | 3.4 | |
| JPN 20Y | 326.3 | 328.4 | 2.1 | |
| CHINA 10Y | 176.7 | 175.2 | -1.5 | |
| SOFR M6/M7 | -22.5 | -11.0 | 11.5 | |
| SOFR M7/M8 | -3.0 | -10.0 | -7.0 | |
| SOFR M8/M9 | 15.5 | 13.5 | -2.0 | |
| EUR | 117.65 | 117.22 | -0.43 | |
| CRUDE (CLM6) | 82.59 | 94.40 | 11.81 | |
| SPX | 7126.06 | 7165.08 | 39.02 | 0.5% |
| VIX | 17.48 | 18.71 | 1.23 | |
| MOVE | 65.70 | 66.97 | 1.27 | |
Weakness persists in red SOFRs
April 24, 2026
****************
–Yesterday morning I thought bonds might face a hard slide right off the open. Couldn’t have been more wrong. On the other hand, Pierre had it a bit worse, From BBG: “Energy trader Pierre Andurand’s largest hedge fund plunged about 52% in the first half of April, wiping out first quarter gains made on bullish oil bets at the start of the Iran war.”
–In any case, yields did edge a bit higher, with tens up nearly 3 bps to 4.322%. Once again, red SOFR contracts were weakest, with red pack -4.625 to 9848.375. Peak contract on the strip is SFRH8 presently, which settled -4 at 9654 (3.46% vs EFFR of 3.64%). In the first three years of qrtly SOFR contracts, front SFRM6 is lowest at 9633.5. Therefore, the spread between M6 and H8 is only -20.5 bps. A couple of the one-yr SOFR calendars made new highs: U6/U7 up 5 on the day at -11.5 (9635.5/9647.0) and Z6/Z7 at -17.0, +2 on the day (9636/9653). The market is squeezing out the possibility of easing as energy prices remain bid and data prints are solid. SFRM6/M7 settled -6, but ERM6/M7 is +35.5 and SFIM6/M7 is +23.5. ECB and BOE pricing tighter policy.
–Chart attached shows SFRZ7 which appears to have rejected the rally from the end of March (unlike stocks). The white line is 2/10, obviously related to weakness in red SOFRs, also pulling back from the early April rally. Gold chart pattern looks similar: not holding the early April bounce.
–Today’s news features UoM Consumer Sentiment which was 47.6 last, a historic low.
Sell bonds, buy lipstick
April 23, 2026
***************
–Quiet session Wednesday with little change in yields though front end remains pressured. 2y +1.5 bps to 3.792% and 10y +0.6 bp to 4.293. Last few sessions featured TY put buyers and this morning rates are higher globally. Highest 10y gilt yield was 4.99 in March, currently just above 4.96. USM6 is printing 113-25. On the daily chart there are several highs around 115-00 (4/8, 115-00. 4/15, 114-30. 4/17, 114-29. 4/21, 114-27). A couple of closes above 115 would reverse the weakness but until then, lower prices are the path of least resistance. CLM6 last print 94.35, +1.38.
–Today’s news includes S&P PMI expected 52.5 from 52.3 and Jobless Claims, as always, expected around 210k.
–May treasury options expire tomorrow. TYM6 settled 111-09 and the 111.25^ settled 0’18. The 111.25p settled 8 and is currently in-the-money with TYM 111-02. TYK6 111p has max open interest on put side with 150k open. now 7/8 ref 111-02.
–Private credit tidbit from @BoringBiz
Thoma Bravo is reportedly handing over the software company Medallia to creditors after restructuring negotiations failed to materialize This is a $5.1 billion equity wipe out for the firm, who bought the business for $6.4 billion in 2021 Largest creditors include Blackstone, KKR, Apollo, Antares and Ares This loan was last marked anywhere between 70c to 100c on the dollar, according to most recent BDC filings from them
–On a more positive note: Marijuana will move from Schedule I—reserved for drugs with no accepted medical use and high abuse potential, such as heroin—to Schedule III, which includes drugs with moderate-to-low physical and psychological dependence, such as ketamine, testosterone, and Tylenol with codeine.
Nice pops in TLRY, Canopy and Curaleaf. Tax burdens will be eased with this change.
–Another notable clip: Chicago Cubs on a hot streak: “The end result was an eight-game winning streak that marks the Cubs’ longest run in April since an 11-game streak in 1970.”
–From today’s FT: L’Oreal hails ‘lipstick effect’ as war drives sales of small beauty comforts.
This phenomenon is called the ‘Lipstick Effect’, although it extends to other beauty products and small luxuries as well. It was first noticed by Leonard Lauder when he realised that sales of his luxury lipstick product had steadily increased throughout the recession in the early 1990s. This was then found to be true in other recessions, such as 2008, and even in the Great Depression.
Rates a bit higher, pushing back ease
April 22, 2026
**************
–Short end of US curve reacted negatively to data. Retail Sales +1.7 headline (1.4 exp) but more importantly ex-auto and gas +0.6% vs expected +0.3. ADP weekly employment also stronger than forecast at 54.7k. 2y treasury jumped 6.5 bps to 3.777%. Curve flatter with tens only up 4 bps to 4.287%. On the SOFR strip reds (2nd year) fell 8.375 bps to just under 9655 (3.45%) while blues, the 4th year out ended -4.125 bps just under 9638. SOFR contracts from June’26 to June’29 are between 9633 and 9659.5 or 3.67% to 3.405%; tight range with only one ease potentially priced.
–There were a couple of large TY put buys on the day: TYK6 111p 8 paid 35k (8s). BLOCK: +60k TYQ6 108.5p 0’20 covered 111-14, 18d. TYQ 108.5p settled 25. vs TYM 111-095, open int up 60k.. Last week larger size buys were TYN6 109.5p. In any case, after a long slog lower in vol things perked up yesterday with many SOFR straddles up 1 to 2 bps. Just before electronic close: TY wk 5 wed 111/111.5 strangle paper pays 27 up to 28 on 10k.
–Not a lot of reaction to Warsh appearance in front of Senate Committee. However, his repeated assertions that he would rely on interest rates rather than QE is, unambiguously negative for equities at the margin. (Though a friend said Bessent will just take over the QE function, which may well be correct). Precious metals were hit yesterday with GCM6 settling -109 at 4719.60, perhaps a subtle nod to possible Fed reforms (though PMs rebounding this morning). While precious metals are somewhat tentative, copper and aluminum are in strong uptrends. Energy infrastructure re-building along with weaponry demand is likely to support base metals.
–Lagarde notes that about 1/3rd of fertilizers are shipped through Hormuz, which could lead to food rationing.
Finally, this newsflash from @market_sleuth on X:
BREAKING: There appears to be “insider trading” for numerous members of Congress who become deca-millionaires a few years into office with a job that pays $190K a year.
“Sleuth” Yes that fits. ‘WE’VE LANDED ON THE MOON!’
Interesting clip on Taiwan.
taiwan lottery
CAR… “blind capital …seeks for someone to devour it.”
Could be a tinder tagline. But Walter Bagehot was editor of the The Economist in 1856.
Every now and then, from causes which are not to the present purpose, the money of people of this class — the blind capital…of the country — happen to be particularly large and craving; it seeks for some one to devour it, and there is “plethora” — it finds some one, and there is “speculation” — it is devoured, and there is “panic.” –Walter Bagehot
https://novelinvestor.com/stupid-money
–Warsh in front of Senate today. Yesterday he said price stability is Fed mandate without excuse. Which sounds a bit hawkish… but he’s not in the chair yet.
–TYM 111.5^ was sold through the day starting with 4k at 116, then 6k at 114 and 113, settled 114 vs 111-21. Both call and put showed an increase in OI >18k. May options expire Friday and TYK6 111.75^ settled 30 ref 111-21, 111.5^ also settle 30. So the 4 weeks of extra time value in June worth 48/64s. Seems low.
–Yields were unch’d to a bp higher. Ten year 4.247%, flat.
–Chart of the day is CAR, Cognitive Augmented Radiation, which (in controlled AI simulations) claims to cut power demands at data centers. In one month, it has screamed from 100 to over 600. One analyst has a year-end target of 2000, and it’s been rumored that Cathie Wood has taken a significant position.
JUST KIDDING CAR is Avis/Budget rent-a-car. According to BBG, 12m EPS -3.90. But…short interest as a % of float is 54%. One man’s craving is another man’s panic.
“who’s gonna tell you when, it’s too late…”
Back and fill from Friday
April 20, 2026
***************
–Friday’s ceasefire moonshot to new highs in stocks is being tempered this morning as the US seized an Iranian cargo ship over the weekend. On Friday CLM6 plunged 8.58/bbl to 82.59. This morning it has rebounded to 87.30. ESM last 7130, -31.50.
–On Friday yields fell with 2s and 5s leading. 2y ended 3.70%, down 7.6 bps and 5y at 3.838, -7.5. Ten year -6.2 at 4.245%. While the 2y is back in the FF target range of 3.50-3.75%, tens are still half percent higher. Curve steepened, with 2/10 at a slight new high 54.5 and 5/30 104.7. On the SOFR strip M7 was strongest, +10.5 at 9657.5. Peak contract Z7 is 9668, +10 on the day, rate of 3.32%, 32 bps under current EFFR 3.64.
–Warsh scheduled for Senate hearing tomorrow.
–Japan issues tsunami warning on a 7.4 quake near Miyako.
Leverage risks abound; market discounts
April 19, 2026 – Weekly comment
***********************************
(Bloomberg 4/17) — A buildup of leveraged hedge fund bets in Treasuries has left investors exposed to abrupt position shifts that could amplify stress across global bond markets, according to Apollo Global Management Inc. Chief Economist Torsten Slok.
Hedge funds now own roughly 8% of the entire $31 trillion US Treasury market, according to Apollo calculations, based on the latest data from the Federal Reserve and Office of Financial Research. That’s up from just 3% five years ago. The buildup has been fueled by heavy borrowing, with combined financing via repurchase agreements and prime brokerages now exceeding $6 trillion, Slok said in a Friday blog post.
According to Google, the duration of outstanding treasury debt is around 71 months, just under six years. Here’s a 5y chart of the 7-year treasury yield to SOFR. At the end of March there was about 60 bps of positive carry (7y 4.25% and SOFR 3.65%). Since 27-March the 7y yield has fallen from 4.25 to Friday’s 4.03%, but there’s still a lot of juice in levered carry.
The blow-up risk was in 2023 and 2024. Even though we’ve had the oil shock this year, with renewed fears of inflation and possible Fed tightening, the second white contract to second red SOFR, now SFRU6 to SFRU7 has remained inverted, ending Friday at -22 (9642/9648). This week SFRM6/SFRM7 spread fell 9 bps to -22.5. Overall, the SOFR curve has steadfastly leaned toward a modest ease rather than hike, and with the late week plunge in oil, even a bit more so.
There continue to be shrill warnings about all types of risks, and given outstanding global debt levels and geopolitics, it’s no wonder. However, VIX at Friday’s close at 17.48 is the lowest since early February, off from a high on March 27 of 31.05. Likewise, MOVE ended at a new low of 65.7, again, back at February levels, off a March 26 high of 115.02.
On Friday, Fed Governor Chris Waller gave a balanced assessment for policy going forward. He discussed the huge decline in net immigration…”means that very little or no net job creation is necessary to absorb new workers into employment.” He also, of course, notes the Middle East situation, “Beyond the length of these disruptions, with this economic shock coming on the heels of the boost to prices from import tariffs, I believe there is the possibility that this series of price shocks may lead to a more lasting increase in inflation, as we saw with the series of shocks during the pandemic.”
I will be cautious when faced with a sequence of transitory shocks [tariffs, oil]. While intellectually it makes sense to look through each shock, with a sequence of shocks, policymakers need to be more vigilant. This is because if the shocks hit one after another, they will keep inflation elevated for quite some time. The standard “look through” can become problematic if businesses and households start to believe inflation is persistently high and it affects their price- and wage-setting behavior.
With respect to policy in the event of Open Hormuz or Continued Hormuz Disruption:
If open and ‘normal’, then “… I see a forecast in which underlying inflation would continue to move toward 2 percent, leaving me cautious about rate cuts now and more inclined toward cuts to support the labor market later this year when the outlook is more steady.”
In the case of continued disruptions, “A slower economy would restrain demand for goods and services, and perhaps soften the increase in prices, but I expect higher inflation than in the first scenario and that it would be elevated for some time. In this case, I also believe we would have a weaker labor market. High inflation and a weak labor market would be very complicated for a policymaker.”
So, no huge hurry to ease, no discussion of balance sheet, pretty much in line with what the SOFR curve Is saying…modest easing likely ahead, but timing could be a ways off.
https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/speech/waller20260417a.htm
On the whole, the message from markets is that the big crises are avoided; vol rarely stays elevated and equity markets appear confident that liquidity will remain abundant even if physical commodity markets are tight.
OTHER THOUGHTS / TRADES
Buying last week of TYN6 109.5 and 109 puts. TYN6 109.5p now has the most open interest of any TY put, with 149k open, Settled 19 with just 20 delta ref TYU 111-175. In May and June the heavy open interest puts are much closer to the money: May, going out Friday: 111p settled 3 with 12d, 110k open. June 111, 110.5 and 110p have 108k, 110k and 118k, settle 22 with 32d, 14 with 22d and 9 with 15d ref 111-23.
There were also three 50k lot clips of weekly calls bought covered: TYM6 settled 111-23.
TY wk1 May 112.0c settled 16 with 38d, 51k open (bot 4/13, 11 cov 111-03, 19d)
TY wk2 May 112.0c settled 23 with 41d, 54k open (bot 4/17, 15 cov 111-12, 21d, so +400k 64’s on calls, and down 231k 64’s on futures).
TY wk2 May 112.5c settled 13 with 26d, 51k open (bot 4/16, 10 cov 111-14, 16d, slightly up)
Week 2 calls expire 8-May, the employment report.
Still seems like SFRZ6 is trading somewhat rich. SFRU6/Z6 is -6.0 (9642/9648), SFRZ6/H7 is -4.0 (9648/9652) and SFRH7/M7 is -5.5 (9652/9657.5). So currently Dec/Mar/Jun fly is +1.5. I would expect this fly to move back into negative territory. Recent low is -4.5 on Feb 27. Dec 31 is on Thursday, so it’s a long ‘turn’.
Love this X post. Elephant slapping the Software shorts. So what if it’s AI generated. The rally was too….
News this week:
Tuesday:
POSSIBLE Senate hearing on Kevin Warsh nomination as Fed Chair
Philly Fed Services
Retail Sales (expected +1.4% m/m)
Thursday:
Chgo Fed and Jobless Claims. S&P PMI
| 4/9/2026 | 4/17/2026 | chg | ||
| UST 2Y | 379.9 | 370.0 | -9.9 | |
| UST 5Y | 393.9 | 383.8 | -10.1 | |
| UST 10Y | 431.5 | 424.4 | -7.1 | |
| UST 30Y | 491.2 | 488.3 | -2.9 | |
| GERM 2Y | 259.8 | 240.5 | -19.3 | |
| GERM 10Y | 305.6 | 295.8 | -9.8 | |
| JPN 20Y | 331.4 | 326.3 | -5.1 | |
| CHINA 10Y | 180.8 | 176.7 | -4.1 | |
| SOFR M6/M7 | -13.5 | -22.5 | -9.0 | |
| SOFR M7/M8 | -9.5 | -3.0 | 6.5 | |
| SOFR M8/M9 | 12.5 | 15.5 | 3.0 | |
| EUR | 117.28 | 117.65 | 0.37 | |
| CRUDE (CLM6) | 89.93 | 82.59 | -7.34 | |
| SPX | 6816.89 | 7126.06 | 309.17 | 4.5% |
| VIX | 19.23 | 17.48 | -1.75 | |
| MOVE | 72.15 | 65.70 | -6.45 | |
No sellers left with stocks at new highs
April 17, 2026
**************
–Yields rose Thursday, with tens up 2.9 bps to 4.307%. Buyer early of 50k TY wk2 May 112.5c for 10, covered 111-14, 16d. These calls expire on NFP day, May 8. (settle 8 vs 111-07). Last week he bought 50k TY wk1 May 112.0c which also settled yesterday at 8. On the put side, a bit more buying of TYN6 109.5p. TYN6 109p and 109.5p are now the concentrated open interest with OI 72k and 149k respectively. (settles 22, 0.22d, and 28, 0.27d). High gamma calls. Normal protection further out in July (expiration date June 26).
Polymkt X post yesterday:
JUST IN: Former Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson calls on U.S. authorities to prepare for a “vicious” bond crash.
There’s a nice push for the prediction markets! Or better yet, Bessent can throw down with Paulson. God I wish there was a prediction market for THAT. Anyway, Bessent is likely already to do whatever it takes to keep bond yields from exploding.
–Worth a note. 2/10 edged to a slight new recent high at 53.1 as did 5/30 at 101.6, but these are somewhat muted rallies off March lows of 42.4 and 83.9, sort of like gold.
–On a more worrisome note, there have been a series of refinery explosions/accidents across the globe. I am linking several X posts. Though CLK6 is currently down 3.60 at 91.09.
From Bogachan Ozdemir:
45 incidents last 45 days … refineries are blowing up all around the world…. not only war zones but in Australia, Indonesia…. today Mexico….
From Andrew Bridgen:
Another coincidence… Massive fire reported at the Dos Bocas Refinery in Tabasco, Mexico 9th April, 2026. …The world’s energy and oil refinery infrastructure is being targeted by those who want to inflict energy lockdowns on us all.
From Rhonda Garad:
Extraordinary-all 4 events happening at once. Australia’s -largest fertilizer producer shut down, -biggest oil refinery on fire -two major gas terminals in WA knocked out.
https://twitter.com/AutumnMandrake/status/2044765087072964880/photo/1
RTRS: A fire at the largest of Australia’s two oil refineries has hit petrol production, company and government officials said on Thursday, just as the nation faces pressure to shore up fuel security with the Iran war disrupting global supply. [I read somewhere else that this refinery incident will have the effect of shutting down gold mining]
Doomberg reports: “In a scandal that defies belief, the member states of the EU have exited the winter of 2025–2026 with disastrously low stores of natural gas just as the war in Iran has closed the Strait of Hormuz, taking 20% of the world’s supply of liquefied natural gas (LNG) offline.”
–Global decline in standards of living around the corner…
